Potential crash?

[whyme 0]

Ed, I will echo Tony's sentiment: your future looks bright.  I'm not going to presume to come up with a dollar amount for you--there are too many moving parts to sort through in this forum, not to mention the limits of my own competence in these matters.  But if I've got this right, you already have something approaching a million dollars in investments, you plan to make substantial contributions for another couple of years, then you expect to be able to keep that money invested for two or three decades before you take income from it (wow), and when you do so you'll just want to withdraw the equivalent of about 25k/year in current dollars.  (Maybe less than that, if you've got social security benefits.) If that's the case, it seems to me that you are on course to "oversave." Short of some Alex Jones-style survivalist apocalypse, you'll likely have resources beyond your needs, even with a protracted period of stingy markets or a large weighting in low-risk fixed-rate investments.  

I suppose you should (if you haven't already) explore the arithmetic for worst-case scenarios that undermine your plan--unexpected health crises, your wife's job ends prematurely, family members who will need your support, etc--and verify that you've built in a margin that will allow you to roll with such punches should they occur.  But saving big at a young age, limiting expenses and planning--that's a great formula, one that very few of us manage to pull off as well as you seem to be doing.

[EdLaFave 0]

Not quite a million. I can't remember how close we got, but we were pushing 800k. With all of the fun going on, it is now closer to 725k. The bogleheads gave me some input on this topic, but I still need to find the time to read the resources they linked me to in order to evaluate the quality of the guidance. I've definitely got my own model, but it sure is a big decision.

It looks like we're approaching -10%. It may be a good time to start paying attention because if you've got a taxable account then you may be able to realize some losses and deduct them (3k/year) from your income taxes. A small conciliation prize provided by your declining investments.

[tony 0]

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. It may be a good time to start paying attention because if you've got a taxable account then you may be able to realize some losses and deduct them (3k/year) from your income taxes

I checked my taxable accounts . All are still   way in the black. Its going to take much more loss for me to claim my losses.  That just goes to show how much of a run up we have had. I'm still not worried. I am convinced the government shutdown looming again, Yellen's final words that the market is overvalued, a new fed being installed, and fear of rising interest rates all are playing a roll. This is now considered a correction. Nothing new here. Just RELAX and let it all playout 

 

[EdLaFave 0]

And just  like that, over the past week or so, we're up about 7%.

If any lurkers read this thread, acting on your emotions will cause you  to fail as an investor. Had I listened to that crazy voice in my head (which, if I'm honest, is still screaming about an impending crash) then I would have missed out on that rapid upswing. We talk abut paying 1-2% in  expense ratios as a killer, imagine regularly missing out on +7% swings in the market! The sooner we acknowledge that we have no way to predict or outsmart the market, the better off we'll be.

[tony 0]

 

 

 

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he sooner we acknowledge that we have no way to predict or outsmart the market, the better off we'll be.

Amen

Everything is a scare tactic to get you to part with your money. Stay the course.

[EdLaFave 0]

Looks like we're down close to 10% since the January peak. I'm enjoying the crash/trade war discussions that are breaking now :)

[tony 0]

Enjoy the crash/ trade discussions but don't act on it. !!

[EdLaFave 0]

That reminded me of a poster who declared they were shorting the entire S&P 500. Want some more excitement in your life?

[sschullo 0]

Yeah! besides shorting, there are these terrible strategies: individual stocks, options, puts and calls, timing, hedging, momentum investing, active management in all of its forms outside of Vanguard, buying low and selling high, trading frequently are all so "EXCITING." As Nobel prize-winning economist, Paul Samuelson said, "Investing should be dull, investing should be more like watching paint dry or grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Vegas."

I have a slight disagreement with Paul on that $800. My girlfriend and I are driving to Vegas to see U2 and Bono on Friday evening and Elton John on Saturday evening in one weekend next month. Neither one of us gambles. Watching these shows are a lot more fun and exciting than watching $800 get sucked up by the tables or the slot machines. The great Paul Samuelson was making a valuable point, but he used the wrong example. I think I have a better example, if you want genuine excitement, see a show. It's sad when I go to a casino to see a show, and I many old people with canes, wheelchairs, and even walkers, sitting at slot machines.