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Ken F

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  1. Ed Why are you attacking me personally? I am not selling anything. I shared knowledge that is counter to your belief. These are facts that you can handle or debate logically. Why don't you do some research and tell me that Bogle's math formula is wrong & as you call it dangerous? FYI: If it makes you happy this is my last post ever on this board. Have a great life KF
  2. dangerous? You don't have to believe Bogle or Buffet. You can review 100 year of historic data and form your own conclusion. Are returns random? (random hypothesis theory) Why do some 10-15 year periods have zero rates of returns (2000-2013) and other have 16% rates of returns? I guess you think they are random right? https://www.crestmontresearch.com/ur-highlights/ https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Matrix-Index6-YE-11x17.pdf
  3. "NEVER give anything meaningful on predicting future returns." I will say is again, future returns are a simple math equation that anyone can calculate. Only issue..there is a missing variable which is ending valuation levels 10 years out (ending P/E ratio) . Bogle calculates it with the historic average valuation (15X) If you don't believe me ....then believe John Bogle because that is exactly what he uses and has used for decades. I don't sell I educate. Bogle: My Return Expectations for Stocks and Bonds "I have a reasonable expectations kind of formula that I’ve been using for 25 years and it’s worked the whole 25 years almost perfectly". -Bogle http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/162164/bogle-my-return-expectations-for-stocks-and-bonds.aspx http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2016/09/the-john-bogle-expected-return-formula/
  4. Sometimes you can put up the sails and relax. Other times you will need to break out the oars and row. (Passive vs Active) https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Understanding-Secular.pdf
  5. Stock market cycles go from low valuations to high valuations and back again. These cycles can 10 maybe 20 years to complete. Coming into this last correction valuations were about as high if not higher than any other cycle. (1920-1929 & 1987-1999) So If valuations revert to the mean (see charts in link) that would be an opportunity for some but a nightmare for others that did expect valuation levels to get that low. http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2018/01/Market-Still-Overvalued-or-Maybe-Not.html This isn't forecast but an observation. I don't know if markets ever get to low levels again but would not be surprised if they did. Stock indexes have traded at 10X earnings w/ 6% dividend yields a number of times in the past. (2008 they got real close to those levels.) Have a plan & stick with it
  6. auto enroll would end this problem. put everyone in a QDIA and participation rates would be close to 100% because very few would opt out. problem solved.
  7. "Model Disclosure mandatory" Moe I'd put it in the "best practice" category.Not yet mandatory but advised by the Taskforce .My guess is 99% of school districts don't even know it exists. my plan is to build a better 403b compare using this model disclosure criteria. Maybe I can post it on google docs so that anyone here can also fill in the blanks. I think 403b compare does not have all the fees I'm seeing in prospective client contracts. example : AXA https://www.403bcompare.com/products/153#/fees some mutual fund expenses in contracts are closer to 1.5-2.0% & the M&E charge on 201 series is 1.34% (called the service line last week w/ client). The AXA rep says she only gets paid 1.25% commission on this contract which I would really like to know if that's true. (thinking 5-6%) but they wont tell the client w/ out the AXA rep on the line. Here is one of few districts that have the form completed https://www.isd622.org/cms/lib/MN01001375/Centricity/Domain/36/North_St._Paul_Checkup_Final_2014.pdf
  8. looking for answers on what happened to the implementation of this? Was it just all for show a smoke screen? I have not seen this Model Disclosure be implemented in any School districts. Obviously these organizations were proud of what they created from this Task Force ....they said so themselves. https://www.planadviser.com/403b-transparency-taskforce-launches-model-disclosure-form/ “Transparency benefits everyone in the 403(b) marketplace—that’s why we urge adoption of the 403(b) model disclosure form by public schools throughout the country,” said Brian Graff, executive director and CEO of ASPPA. “We believe that once these standards are in use, school employees will have a better handle on their retirement plan options.” http://www.benefitspro.com/2011/09/20/403b-task-force-fights-for-transparency-standards “We are committed to improving the 403(b) system by creating national transparency standards for 403(b) fees and services. This will allow public school employees the opportunity to evaluate their retirement savings options so they can make informed choices about their retirement. We strongly believe that improving transparency is a far better approach to improving the 403(b) marketplace, than taking away employee’s options as some have been advocating,” said Brian Graff, executive director and CEO of ASPPA Letter to SEC & not sure how to interpret this ? https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/noaction/2015/american-retirement-sssociation-021815-482-incoming.pdf Link to form: PDF http://ntsa-net.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=-EuSEmXEaJM%3D&portalid=4
  9. In one word "frustrating" trying to get through to teacher union presidents, district businesses office & superintendents is one of the hardest task I've taking on in my 23 year career. But I'm beginning to make progress. I think the key is discussing the Model disclosure form Please read this letter & give me some feedback: Why is there no school districts that apply this process if that was the goal? https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/noaction/2015/american-retirement-sssociation-021815-482-incoming.pdf
  10. there is no mandatory advisor fee. You need to call FTJ and take the advisor off if they add no value. here are the two ways: https://ftjfundchoice.com/strategist-directed https://ftjfundchoice.com/advisor-directed
  11. On my Podcast with Dan & Scott I said "You can make a good living as a financial advisor doing the right thing why would you do the wrong thing?" I have had three speaking engagements in school districts in the last 6 months. I can tell you there are a lots of teachers & administrators need help figuring all of this out. Most can't tell me what an annuity is or if they currently are invested in one. America has done a poor job on educating people on the basics of financial planning and investing. Sad but true. There are good advisors out there (ex Scotty D) & they are adding value to client relationships. This is obviously rare in the 403(b) marketplace. I just don't understand why annuity salespeople don't open an independent practice and act as a fiduciary to their clients? guess it is the quick compensation drives them. solution: Provide advice via an hourly fee & if clients don't have the time, desire, or competence level to manage their investment portfolios then provide them with a fee based platform. I show all prospects Aspire & FTJ ( some have access to TIAA-Cref) platforms and tell them they can go direct or hire me to manage the investment models. No sales pitch necessary make the change
  12. Well I had 2 interview this week with financial reporters trying to get them to write more articles about the conflicts of interest in 403(b)s. So stay tuned because I gave them some good topics to write about. What is a Variable annuity M&E fee & why it is a teacher retirement plan killer. Why did the ball get dropped on the 403(b) model disclosure form by the 403(B) taskforce (what a joke) http://www.planadviser.com/403b-Transparency-Taskforce-Launches-Model-Disclosure-Form/ Why doesn't Omni 403(b) have a comparison tool like 403bcompare.com ? (yes we all know the reasons but most school districts don't) I'm trying but not many care about fixing the problems. Ken If they don't write on these topics than I will write them myself.
  13. Tony, I still read the board and like majority of the content & discussions but obliviously there are things being said that are debatable. ex. Swedroe' article. Its hard not to post the other side of a story when all the facts are not fully presented. I always like to hear the other side to check if I am missing something in my analysis. I am reluctant to post information about the dark side of indexation and especially the rise of the ETFs. example: There are now more ETFs than publicly traded stocks. (over 5000 ETFs but only 3500 stock trade in the US markets) think about that for a second......I find this to be insane. I was an advocate of ETFs (low cost & diversification) up on till late. Steve Bregman has made a case against them that I can not dispute.(Steve S. may try & I welcome his reply) I was blown away by a 2 hour interview recently. Below is a sample of the interview. I now agree that John Bogle was right on ETFs & Vanguard was pressured to create ETFs vs. their traditional open-end funds. He may regret that one day. Steve Bregman's clip below gives a taste of what is wrong. Most investors and advisors don't know the negatives on the ETF structure. I now will not touch the QQQ ETF (and many others) ever again. The QQQ factsheet states a P/E ratio that is total BS A fraud IMHO. The factsheet says the P/E ratio is 22X Why is this a fraud to there investors? Because any company in the index that loses money or has a P/E of +100X is removed from their hedonic calculation (like TSLA AMZN) The ETF P/E Magic Trick | Steven Bregman Interview Semantic Investing in ETFs | Steven Bregman Interview hope you find these educational & not offensive Ken PS their is an interview on you tube w/ Jesse Felder & Steve Bregman that is over an hour long but I will not link it because it goes against many of the boards belief systems regarding passive vs active. I don't take sides on this debate b/c both have pros and cons to them.
  14. Steve, I forgot to complement You & Dan for selling bond funds & moving to TIAA-Cref's Fixed account. That was a very smart move. Could that be put in the active mgmt category? : ) joking aside, I still fell high quality Bonds will be ok ...just stay away from Europe Sovereign Debt. US High quality US look relatively attractive vs what madness over there. Try to find an economic textbook w/ a chapter on Negative interest rates? but 10 Trillion of debt over there has a negative yield.....who buys that? If your bored he is a good slide deck. http://www.fasanara.com/cookie-11092017 But I know you don't stray to far from the vanguard path. Best Ken
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