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2020 YTD Return

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That's a serious account balance to manage. VTBLX being up 7% YTD has to be a pleasant surprise.

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5 hours ago, ScottO said:

That's a serious account balance to manage. VTBLX being up 7% YTD has to be a pleasant surprise.

Hi Scott,

I was thinking about the complication when I talked about it at the Zoom presentation last week. As I said it boils down to the stock bond split and its not that complicated.

But it was a hard sell. Yeah, I agree with you. At first glance I would have said the same thing. I did not have enough time to explain what I was doing and am not sure if the audience understands Value vs Growth, small and mid cap have a little higher return over time and the bond diversification. My portfolio is not a perfect example to present to teachers who have all levels of knowledge. But the regulars here have little or no problem as its pretty basic and simple. 

So, it gets complicated when tilted to large cap value (Wellesley) and mid and small cap stocks (Extended Market index). On the bond side I wanted inflation protection with Treasury Direct, international bonds for additional bond diversification, and the fixed 3% return from TIAA, where I take my IRA mandatory distribution. Just this year because I paid huge tax bills in 2018 and 2019, I added took a chuck of Total Bond Market index and bought the tax advantaged Vanguard Muni California bond fund. Since I live in California I get both a State and federal tax exemption. 

I have Wellesley for another reason. I have my Roth in Wellesley and half in total international bond market. I only wanted 35% equity exposure with my Roth but since I am so damn risk adverse, only because of my age, I have enough and I need every penny for retirement. I cannot afford massive losses again. Its the preservation stage of my life. 

YEAH! those bonds are rip roaring. Last year the total bond market index was over 8.0%!  Looks like this year is another winner for bond investors. Who would have thought of this. As we know here, nobody knows nothing about the future. Since I have most of my money in bonds, I am a happy camper.  

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I am sure most of you noticed that the market is going back up despite this mess we are involved.

My boring portfolio is up YTD, 4.9%. What a year and it is not over yet. 

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Vanguard 403b

403bvanguard01.jpg.b9a01d1bea201bb8270a7683e9cd6273.jpg

 

I think you were lookin' for calculations in another thread:

403bvanguard02.jpg.325b4e6e4d626019042ff533380c3417.jpg

 

Other Vanguard Accts (Roth, IRA, Taxable)vanguardacct01.jpg.5e1d2a86cd4482ac70ec7e4c7f51a8d9.jpg

 

At 6.6% YTD for everything we've got going as of today. Was 3.9% at the end of Q3 (9/30). I was trying to rebalance through contribution changes(leaning more 80/20 instead of 90/10), but so far it hasn't moved the 403b allocations. Bulk of the other accounts is 100% stock.

 

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Here is my wordy and totally unsophisticated "equation" that I remember learning from middle school: 

  • End of 2019 value of portfolio.  Example: 100,000
  • Add in distributions (or subtract contributions) no contributions or distributions for this example
  • Get a current value. Portfolio grew to 110,000. Obviously you have the answer just by looking, 10% YTD RETURN. But lets finish this example.
  • Subtract the end of 2019 value from the YTD total value: 110,000 - 100000 = 10,000
  • Divide that difference with the end of the year value = the YTD return. 10,000/100000 = .1 or 10% (I still remember my teacher literally showing the class to move the decimal point two digits to the right, add the zero DON"T FORGET THAT ZERO! and replace the decimal point with the % sign). 
  • Check your answer by multiplying that RETURN by the end of 2019 value to get the growth of your portfolio:  100000 .10 = 10000

For a math phobic student, I know this is like climbing into the ring facing Muhammad Ali with all of the math power on this forum.  You guys will have fun picking this apart! Go for it! 

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